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USI-SIPRI joint seminUSI-SIPRI Joint Seminar on “Nuclear Threat Matrix & Emerging Technologies: Impact on Nuclear Postures”

USI - SIPRI ROUND TABLE DISCUSSION

“NUCLEAR THREAT MATRIX & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: IMPACT ON NUCLEAR POSTURES”

Aug 22, 2024

 

S.No.	Session/Timings	Topic	Speaker
1	Introductory Session  1000 – 1010 H (CEST)/ 1330-1340 (IST)	Welcome Remarks	Maj Gen BK Sharma, AVSM, SM** (Retd) DG, USI Mr Dan Smith, Director SIPRI
2	Session I (1010 - 1100 H) CEST 1010 – 1015 H (CEST))/ 1340-1345 (IST)	Nuclear Threat Matrix & Evolving Nuclear Postures; Moderator: Maj Gen BK Sharma, AVSM, SM** (Retd), DG, USI
	1015 – 1025 H (CEST)/ 1345-1355 (IST)	Evolving Nuclear Dynamics & Postures	Dr Bharat Karnad
	1025 – 1035 H (CEST)/ 1355-1405 (IST)	North Korea Nuclear Trajectory	Dr Rajeev Nayan
	1035 – 1045 H (CEST)/ 1405- 1415 (IST)	Risks of Nuclear Brinkmanship (Russia-Ukraine)	Dr Wilfred Wan
	Q&A 1045 – 1100 H (CEST)/ 1415- 1430 (IST)
3	Session II (1100 - 1150 H) CEST 1100 – 1105 H (CEST)/ 1430-1435 (IST)	Nuclear Postures & Emerging & Disruptive Technologies (EDT), Space, Cyber & Sea Based Deterrence; Moderator:  Mr Dan Smith, Director SIPRI
	1105 – 1115 H (CEST)/ 1435- 1445 (IST)	EDT & Impact of Space on Nuclear Postures	Dr Roshan Khanijo
	1115 – 1125 H (CEST)/ 1445-1455 (IST)	Sea Based Deterrence	Vice Adm S Mahindru, PVSM, AVSM, NM (Retd)
	1125 – 1135 H (CEST)/ 1455- 1505 (IST)	Impact of Cyber on Nuclear Postures	Ms Fei Su
	Q&A 1135 – 1150 H CEST)/ 1505- 1520 (IST)
4	Session III (1150 -1220 H) CEST 1150 – 1155 H (CEST)/ 1520- 1525 (IST)	Challenges to Disarmament, Arms Control & Nuclear Risk Reduction Initiatives; Moderator: Lt Gen Amit Sharma, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd)
	1155 – 1205 H (CEST)/ 1525- 1535 (IST)	Nuclear Risk Reduction Initiatives, CBMs & TRIADS	Air Marshal Rajesh Kumar, PVSM, AVSM, VM (Retd)
	1205 – 1210 H (CEST)/ 1535- 1540 (IST)	Challenges to Arms Control & Disarmament	Dr Tytti Erästö
	Q&A 1210 – 1220 H (CEST)/ 1540- 1550 (IST)
5	Concluding Session 1220 – 1230 H (CEST)/ 1550-1600 (IST)	Closing Remarks	Maj Gen RS Yadav, VSM (Retd) Director CS3, USI

 

 

Key Takeaways:

• Maj Gen BK Sharma, AVSM, SM**, (Retd) flagged the discussion by stating that the world is now heading towards a nuclear Armageddon, with escalation on the rise.

Welcome Remarks by DG, USI

Welcome Remarks by Director, SIPRI

 

• Mr. Dan Smith emphasized the importance of an integrated approach to security, noting that various factors combined together make the world more insecure, not just military spending. He underscored the need for new discussions, connections, and ideas.

 

SESSION I: NUCLEAR THREAT MATRIX & EVOLVING NUCLEAR POSTURES; 

• Maj Gen BK Sharma, AVSM, SM**, (Retd) moderated the session by dissecting the meaning of nuclear matrix and postures. As arms control treaty are already in a state of deep freeze, emerging technologies and contemporary trends adds ambiguity in the nuclear arena.

     

• Dr. Bharat Karnad spoke on ‘Evolving Nuclear Dynamics and Postures’. He argued that India had always been a risk-averse state and now India should follow a proactive approach. He advocated for the deployment of TNWs across LAC to deter China’s military and nuclear superiority.

 

• Dr. Rajeev Nayan discussed “North Korea’s Nuclear Trajectory” as complexity in the region is enabling North Korea to enhance its nuclear capability with China’s assistance, defying international system. He highlighted that North Korea is the only state to have enshrined nuclear weapons in its constitution.

 

• Dr. Wilfred Wan spoke on the ‘Risks of Nuclear Brinkmanship’ in the context of Russia-Ukraine. Nuclear brinkmanship has various purposes, nuclear asymmetries combined with messy deterrence strategies makes the world more dangerous.

 

 

SESSION II: NUCLEAR POSTURES & EMERGING & DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (EDT), SPACE, CYBER & SEA BASED DETERRENCE 

 

• Mr Dan Smith, the moderator for the session commented that the concept of deterrence is constantly changing in contemporary times. The role of non-nuclear defences such as bio-chemical weapons and the plausibility of outer space conflict is increasing.

         

Esteemed Panelists of Session II

 

 

 

 

          

 

• Dr. Roshan Khanijo elaborated upon the use of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) and the impact of space on nuclear postures. She talked about importance of technology in multi-domain warfare, asymmetrical capabilities, emerging technologies and space satellites.

 

• Vice Adm S Mahindru, PVSM, AVSM, NM (Retd) discussed the role of sea-based deterrence and the importance of No First Use (NFU) policy. His study focused on India, Pakistan, China and Australia.

 

• Ms. Fei Su spoke on the impact of cyber technology on nuclear postures, highlighting the potential of cyber technology to escalate confrontation, impact of human error and systematic malfunction as common escalation triggers.

       

SESSION III: CHALLENGES TO DISARMAMENT, ARMS CONTROL & NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION INITIATIVES.

• Lt Gen Amit Sharma, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd), the moderator for the session opened discussions by highlighting the first use of nuclear weapons in 1945. He talked about Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, various treaties like LTBT, NPT, CTBT which are yet to display their purpose and influence over today’s established nuclear states.

    

Esteemed Panelists of Session III

          

 

 

 

 

• Air Marshal Rajesh Kumar, PVSM, AVSM, VM (Retd) shed light on the situation of nuclear disarmament being in disarray, and that the influence of ABM treaty, INF are lost. He talked about New START treaty between US and Russia which is set to expire soon in 2026 and TPNW which is not been ratified by any of the member countries.
• Dr Tytti Erästö reiterated that control agreements between big nuclear-armed powers, like the US and Russia, have either collapsed or weakened. The trend is now shifting from arms control treaties to nations boosting their deterrents. Deterrence initiatives are effective if the political situation in the country is stable.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF Q&A SESSION

• Regarding civil nuclear energy technology, as the number of nuclear reactors starts becoming more easily available, there will be an increasing concern about securing the fissile material. New threats like redirection, and theft of fissile material will emerge.

 

• On the concept of ‘Launch on Warning’ for better deterrence, a state will need to be very accurate in detecting, intercepting, and destroying a nuclear missile.

 

Report By: Research Team, CS3, USI.