Subir Bhaumik

This Occasional Paper argues that conventional, equation-driven combat models—especially Lanchester-type formulations—cannot capture the non-linear, anticipatory and human dimensions of warfare as a complex adaptive system. It introduces agent-based modelling (ABM) as a more faithful way to represent heterogeneous forces, emergent behaviour, morale, friction and local equilibrium in battle. The paper then demonstrates that well-designed board and tabletop wargames are, in effect, qualitative ABMs: they treat units as agents with distinctive attributes, use outcome-focused combat results tables, and generate realistic second- and third-order effects. Building on this insight, the authors propose a phased strategy for the Indian armed forces to adopt commercial off-the-shelf games, develop bespoke analogue systems, and ultimately migrate to distributed computer wargames grounded in qualitative ABM. They conclude by linking wargaming culture, “fight clubs”, and data-farming to better doctrine, decision-making and AI-enabled simulation.