Mr Vinayak Sharma Ms Komal Chaudhary

This Occasional Paper examines the evolving contours of China’s rise and its implications for the emerging global order, conceptualised as the potential establishment of Pax Sinica. It analyses the strategic, institutional, economic, and geopolitical instruments through which China is expanding its influence across regions. The paper situates China’s trajectory within a historical framework, drawing parallels with post-World War II power consolidation by the United States, while highlighting Beijing’s distinct approach of working both within and alongside existing international systems. Through a detailed exploration of expansionism, soft power, human intelligence practices, and economic statecraft, the paper underscores the coherence and long-term orientation of China’s grand strategy. It also assesses the implications of these developments for regional stability, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and for global governance structures. It concludes by evaluating alternative pathways for China’s ascent and the broader strategic consequences for the international system.